US Chamber of Commerce finds SMBs growing cautious on economy, growth

Small business confidence in the U.S. declined for a second consecutive quarter as economic uncertainty grew, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for the first quarter of 2026.

According to the report, the index fell to 67.0 from 68.4 in the previous quarter, pulling back from a recent high of 72.0 in Q3 of 2025, signaling rising concern about the national and local economic outlook.

Owners pessimistically rate the national economy

While nearly seven in 10 owners (69%) said their own business remains in good health, confidence in broader economic conditions weakened. Only 28% of respondents described the U.S. economy as being in good health, which is a drop of 10 percentage points from last quarter, and 35% said the same of their local economy, down 8 points.

Slower growth and hiring expectations

Small business owners also tempered their growth expectations:

• 37% said they expect to increase investment in the next year, down from 44% last quarter.
• 30% said they expect to increase staff, a 12‑point decrease from the Q4 of 2025.
• 61% said they expect revenue increases, down from 65% last quarter and 69% a year ago.

The pullback in expectations highlights how economic uncertainty is beginning to influence planning decisions for hiring, capital spending, and revenue growth.

Inflation remains the primary challenge

Inflation continued to dominate business concerns, with 53% of small business owners citing it as their biggest challenge, up from 45% last quarter. This reflects the 17th consecutive quarter that inflation has topped the list. At the same time, 19% said the cost of employee benefits or health care is among their top concerns, the highest level recorded since tracking began in 2023