Trump tariffs fuel recession fears among small business owners

Small business owners across the U.S. are growing increasingly pessimistic about the economy, with many preparing for a potential recession tied to proposed tariffs under President Trump’s administration. According to the latest CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey conducted in late April 2025, only 30% of small business owners rate the economy as excellent or good, down from 39% in the previous quarter.

Concerns over inflation and weakening consumer demand remain high, but tariffs are rapidly rising as a key threat. More than half (51%) of surveyed small business owners expect upcoming trade policy changes to impact their operations over the next year negatively. Overall, 66% have already been affected by tariffs or anticipate being affected soon.

The economic unease extends beyond business outlooks. Seventy percent of respondents believe the U.S. is heading toward a recession, a belief shared widely across political affiliations. Meanwhile, 60% report feeling very or somewhat stressed about their business finances, and 63% express the same concerns about their personal finances.

This rising anxiety follows growing warnings from large corporations, which have started adjusting pricing in response to expected cost increases from tariffs. Pandora, Mattel and Microsoft are among the latest to announce product price hikes.

Many small businesses that rely on manufacturing in China, previously subject to tariffs as high as 145%, have already paused orders due to the steep cost burden. Some temporary relief is now in place: on May 14, the U.S. and China entered a 90-day trade truce that lowers the maximum U.S. tariff on Chinese imports to 30% while China has reduced its tariff on American goods from 125% to 10%. However, it remains unclear whether tariffs will rise again after the truce ends or if China will retaliate, leaving policy uncertainty high.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has formally requested immediate action from the Trump administration to lift tariffs on small business importers, warning that many small firms face irreversible damage without swift intervention. So far, the White House has not responded.