Small businesses defy tariff turmoil with surprising optimism

Most U.S. small businesses entered 2025 bracing for a slowdown, but new survey data shows many are outperforming expectations and feeling confident heading into the second half of the year.

According to a survey of 1,500 small business owners conducted by Constant Contact, 86.3% expressed optimism about their companies’ prospects for the next quarter. Nearly a third described themselves as “extremely” positive. The same trend held for perceptions of their broader industries.

That optimism appears rooted in stronger-than-expected first-half performance. Nearly one-third of respondents said customer demand and sales had outpaced their forecasts from January, and another 12.4% reported results that were “much higher” than anticipated. A combined 84.8% said business in the first half of the year was either better than expected or in line with projections.

This comes despite ongoing uncertainty caused by shifting White House policies, including fluctuating import tariffs and broader trade tensions. While large companies and markets responded cautiously to those developments, many small businesses reported adjusting successfully.

Staffing expectations also trended positive. One in three small business owners planned to increase hiring in the third quarter, ranging from entry-level to executive positions. Notably, 77% said recruiting workers was currently “somewhat” or “extremely” easy — a reversal from earlier reports of hiring challenges.

Entrepreneurs also showed unexpected confidence in expansion. Over half of respondents said now is a good time to launch new products or services, and 62% said they would recommend starting a business in the current environment.

Those results were echoed in the CNBC-SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey for Q3 2025, which found that 46% of entrepreneurs rated the economy as “good” or “excellent,” up from 30% the previous quarter. The number of business owners who said tariffs negatively impacted their operations also dropped by about five percentage points.

Still, challenges remain, especially for smaller firms. Larger, well-capitalized businesses were more likely to report weathering economic disruptions, while solo entrepreneurs and microbusinesses expressed more uncertainty about their ability to grow under current conditions.

Despite lingering concerns, the survey findings indicate that the small business sector has thus far proven resilient in the face of policy instability and global headwinds.