After five months of declines, U.S. consumer confidence rebounded sharply in May as President Donald Trump’s temporary tariff pauses and trade negotiations eased some economic uncertainty.
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 98, up from 85.7 in April—the lowest level since May 2020. The improvement was broad-based across all income and age groups and reflected a shift in sentiment following Trump’s tariff adjustments and key trade talks earlier in the month.
Americans’ short-term expectations for business, income, and the job market also climbed, with that index jumping 17.4 points to 72.8. While still below the 80-point threshold that can indicate recession risks, it marked the largest single-month gain in over a year. The number of consumers expecting a recession in the next 12 months also declined from April.
The consumer survey closed on May 19, meaning the latest move by the Trump administration—a delay of the 50% tariff on European Union imports announced over Memorial Day weekend—was not reflected in the results. However, the May 12 agreement with China and a new deal with the U.K. were included and likely influenced responses.
Despite the confidence surge, concerns remain. Write-in responses from survey participants identified tariffs as the leading economic worry, followed by inflation. The Board also reported that while most economic assessments improved, sentiment around job availability continued to weaken for the fifth consecutive month.
The Labor Department recently reported a stronger-than-expected jobs gain of 177,000 in April, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. Yet less than one-quarter of consumers expressed concern about losing their jobs. Instead, nearly half said they were more worried about affording goods and services.
Inflation appears to be easing for now. The Commerce Department earlier this month said consumer prices rose 2.3% in March from a year earlier, down from 2.7% in February. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also slowed to 2.6% from 3%. Gas prices have dipped year-over-year to around $3.17 per gallon.
While the recent rebound offers a hopeful signal, continued volatility in trade policy may determine whether consumer confidence can sustain its upward trend.
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