The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86 in April, the lowest reading in nearly five years. It declined 7.9 points from March and came in below the Dow Jones estimate of 87.7.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and the labor market for the next six months, dropped 12.5 points to 54.4. This is the lowest result since October 2011 and is a level historically consistent with a recession.
“Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future.”
32.1% of respondents expect fewer jobs in the next six months, a shocking figure nearly as high as April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession. For the first time in five years, future income prospects turned negative.
April’s deep dampening in confidence stretches across all age groups and most income groups. However, the sharpest declines were observed in participants between the ages of 35 and 55. Even more noteworthy, the decline was consistent across all participants despite their political affiliations.
While short-term expectations plunged, consumers’ views of the present held up comparatively better. The Present Situation Index slipped slightly, down 0.9 points to 133.5, with more consumers describing business conditions as “good” rather than “bad.” However, views on current labor market conditions weakened modestly, with fewer respondents believing that jobs are plentiful and an increase saying jobs are challenging to get.
The volatility of the stock market further eroded consumer confidence, with 48.5% confirming that they expect stock prices to dip over the next 12 months, the highest reading since October 2011.
Inflation expectations surged to 7%, the highest reading since November 2022, when the United States was experiencing heightened inflation rates.
The Conference Board also noted that tariff fears have hit an all-time high in their survey history, and they are at the forefront of consumers’ minds when considering increasing prices and economic outlooks.
Household sentiment around personal finances also took a hit. Views of current and expected family financial situations weakened, with expectations about future finances falling to their lowest level since the metric began in 2022.
