Small businesses report record confidence heading into second half of 2026

Small businesses are heading into 2026 with more optimism than ever, according to the latest Small Business Cash Flow Report from lender OnDeck and analytics firm Ocrolus.

The report found that 93% of small business owners expect growth in the coming year, with nearly a third expecting significant growth, a survey all-time high.

Unfortunately, while confidence is rising, business owners still have plenty to be concerned about. According to the report, cash flow topped the list of concerns for the first time, cited by 31% of respondents. Inflation, which historically led concerns, fell to second at 29%.

“Small businesses aren’t slowing down; they’re planning ahead, investing in growth and finding new ways to operate more efficiently,” said Cory Kampfer, Co-President of Small Business Lending at Enova, in the report.

The findings also reveal a major shift in how owners are funding their businesses. More than 76% report bypassing traditional banks for capital, another survey record. Access to credit ranked as the top factor shaping 2026 strategy for 46% of respondents. Consumer spending came in second at 42%, followed by interest rates at 35%. Trade policy and other macro risks ranked far lower, at just 14%.

AI adoption is also rising steadily. 58% of small business owners say they now use AI tools. Among those users, 89% report a positive impact on their business.

“Small businesses are showing a high level of adaptability as they move through 2026,” said David Snitkof, General Manager of Small Business at Ocrolus. “Whether it’s adjusting pricing, exploring new suppliers, or leveraging AI, owners are making deliberate choices supported by better data and clearer visibility into their financial performance.”

The report is based on 651 SMBs with working capital loans and more than 3.69 million financing applications. OnDeck and Ocrolus conducted the survey between March 4 and 10, 2026.